Iran is now hitting oil infrastructure. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline

🇮🇷 Iran is now hitting oil infrastructure. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline — running through Georgian territory, carrying Azerbaijani crude across the Caucasus to the Turkish Mediterranean coast, has been struck by drones. That pipeline supplies 30% of Israel’s oil.

Iran didn’t close the Strait and stop there. It is now methodically severing every energy artery feeding the coalition that bombed it — working outward from the Gulf, across the region, into the Caucasus, toward the Mediterranean. This is beyond retaliation. This is a calculated siege.

Iran’s strategy is rationing — carefully escalating energy pain in sequence, working outward from the Strait to Gulf infrastructure to Caucasian pipelines, each strike a calculated increment designed to make the economic cost of continuing unbearable before Washington runs out of things to bomb. “We haven’t seen the peak of it — we haven’t seen the worst of what could happen,” said Iman Nasseri, Managing Director for the Middle East at FGE, warning that sustained attacks on production fields and pipelines would push oil well into the $90-$100 range. Nasseri is being conservative.

The next logical Iranian moves are already visible in the architecture of what they haven’t hit yet — the Saudi East-West pipeline that bypasses Hormuz, Iraq’s offshore loading platforms in Iranian territorial waters that handle 3.5 million barrels a day, and the Abqaiq processing hub that handles the majority of Saudi crude before it reaches any export terminal. Hit those in sequence, and no strategic petroleum reserve on earth covers the gap. Iran has been under sanctions for forty years and its economy has already absorbed the worst the global financial system can deliver — the countries now watching their refineries burn and their LNG terminals go offline have not, and Tehran knows exactly how long each of them can hold before the phone calls to Washington start demanding an exit.